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How our daily ranked setups actually resolved
Each trading day, about an hour after the US market open, PutFinder ranks cash-secured-put setups across a curated list of liquid US stocks. This page tracks how those ranked setups have actually resolved at expiration since {date} — a daily, factual record of a ranking heuristic. It is descriptive research, not investment advice, and the sample is still small and early.
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Dataset status
See how cohort validation works →On 2026-07-20 we captured 17/54 tickers (a system coverage gap — a network-path failure on our side); those entries are retained as recorded, and per ADR-0064 a run below the coverage floor no longer updates the public record.
✨AI summary
How to read this page
Settled vs Pending — “Settled” setups have reached expiration and have a final result; “Pending” ones are still open.
Daily Top-10 (A) vs Full Pool (B) — A is the Top-10 we actually publish each day; B is every setup that passed the basic liquidity screen. The gap between them is whether our ranking added anything.
Percentage points (pp) — the plain arithmetic gap between two percentages: subtract one from the other, and the result is in percentage points, not percent.
Everything is hypothetical — results are marked at the close mid, not actual fills (real executions differ due to bid–ask spread, timing and fees), on a small early sample.
ⓘ① Hypothetical — results are marked at the daily close mid, not actual fills; real executions would differ due to bid–ask spread, order timing, and broker fees. Past performance of a ranking heuristic is not a return predictor.
Data as of
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Last run snapshot
Settled ②
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Resolved positions
Pending ②
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Awaiting expiration
PUBLIC Our Top-10 vs. the full pool
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How much better our published setups resolved
②Settled & pending shown side-by-side③Win rate never without avg return + worst case
Cohort Comparison
Three ways to slice the same setups.A · Daily Top-10 = the Top-10 we publish each day.B · Full Pool = every setup that passed the basic liquidity screen (a zero-skill baseline).B′ · Yield-Ranked Top-10 = a Top-10 picked by raw yield alone.A vs B shows whether our ranking added value; A vs B′ shows whether the multi-factor score beats just chasing yield.
Headlines
② Settled and pending counts are shown side-by-side throughout. ③ Win/loss frequency is always presented alongside avg return and worst case — never alone.
Score Calibration
Setups grouped by their score. Higher-score groups should show better average returns and fewer losses — if they don’t, the scoring weights aren’t adding value. Grouped on the full pool so a low-score group exists. Source: pool.
Avg return % by score bucket
Score band
Avg return %
Loss freq
Worst case
Settled
Pending
Per-Ticker Results
Click a column header to sort.
Ticker
Win rate % ③
Avg return % ③
Worst case % ③
Assign freq
Settled
Pending
Deep-Dive Analysis
A closer look at whether the Daily-Top-10-vs-pool gap is real: what it's made of, whether it depends on market regime, whether it survives accounting for how few independent settlement dates back it, and where the data is still too thin to read.
Win rate, or loss size?
The gap between the Daily Top-10 and the pool splits into three additive parts: a change in win rate, a change in how much a winner pays, and a change in how much a loser costs.
Is this distinguishable from chance?
Every settled Daily Top-10 contract shares one of only a handful of expiration dates — they are not independent draws. Clustering by expiration date is the statistically correct test; treating every contract as independent (shown alongside, for contrast) overstates significance.
Does the gap depend on market regime?
The Daily-Top-10-vs-pool gap by expiration date, alongside how the underlying names moved that cycle.
Expiration
Daily Top-10 avg %
Pool avg %
Delta (pp)
Pool underlying move %
A like-for-like comparison
Conditioning the pool on the Daily Top-10 cohort's own minimum score, plus what share of the raw gap the pool's catalyst-gated score-0 rows alone explain (a cohort the Daily Top-10 structurally can't contain).
Is the gap robust?
Trimmed means, medians, and dropping one expiration at a time — checking the gap isn't a single-outlier or single-ticker artifact.
Does the score beat the Yield-Ranked Top-10?
Daily Top-10 vs. a Top-10 picked by raw annualized yield alone (no Quality/VRP/Trend) — the honesty check for whether the multi-factor score earns its complexity.
Where the data is (and isn't) thick enough to read
Daily Top-10 cohort results by sector, days-to-expiration, and score band. A greyed-out row has too few settled contracts to read as comparable to the rows beside it — the number is shown, never hidden, but should not be treated as a reliable estimate.
